Plenty of lithium to go around

The question was never if lithium was a good element to use in car batteries. Because of its high-energy density and the fact that it is the lightest solid element, lithium is the clear choice for powering electric vehicles. The question, then, was whether there would be enough.

“Global Lithium Availability: A Constraint for Electric Vehicles?,” published in the Journal of Industrial Ecology in July, puts the controversy articulated in its title to rest. In the study, Paul Gruber and Pablo Medina, both 2010 graduates of SNRE and the Ross School of Business, conclude that the estimated 39 million tons of lithium in deposits around the world will, even under the swiftest transportation transition scenarios, meet demand for electric vehicles through 2100.

Other co-authors of the study were Ford Motor Co. researchers Mark Everson and Timothy Wallington, SNRE Professor Greg Keoleian and Stephen Kesler, professor emeritus of geological sciences. Keoleian said that the study improves on previous efforts to quantify global lithium reserves by providing “a more comprehensive analysis of both the supply side and the demand side.”

The study compiled data on 103 lithium deposits with a focus on the 32 that contain more than 100,000 tons. The top four deposits, in ascending order of size, are Qaidam in China, Kings Mountain Belt in the United States, Atacama in Chile and Uyuni in Bolivia. The Uyuni deposit alone could contain 27 percent of the world’s lithium.

On the demand side, Gruber and Medina modeled growth projections to forecast that the transportation system will be saturated with electric vehicles by the mid-2080s. “All major automakers are planning to introduce electric vehicles using lithium-ion technology in the next few years,” Gruber said.

Gruber, who now manages a transportation think tank at the University of California, Davis, outlined the next big questions for lithium: First, how can lithium be extracted around the world in an equitable manner? Second, how can lithium-ion batteries be reused and recycled? And third, how will alternative fuels catch on in developing markets?

Gruber said a lot has to happen at once for these alternative technologies to work: incentive-driven policies; stricter regulations on carbon, local pollutants and congestion; infrastructure roll out; and consumer willingness to purchase vehicles with larger upfront costs. “I hope we can achieve this coordination of industry, policy and consumers,” he said.